VB .NET $$$ Up or Stable?


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Thread: VB .NET $$$ Up or Stable?

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  1. #1
    Mike Guest

    VB .NET $$$ Up or Stable?


    All,

    I was wondering what your thoughts are. Is this new MS architecture going
    to drive up consulting rates?

    To me, it has to raise it. It seems like it is going to shake out some people.
    I have to believe some people will not gear up for the .NET or they go elsewhere.

    Any thoughts?

    Mike

  2. #2
    Michael \(michka\) Kaplan Guest

    Re: VB .NET $$$ Up or Stable?

    Its unclear whether it will be able to drive up rates.... that depends on
    how popular it ends up being. So far, it is very popular with many of the
    few people who have been able to play with it and many of the forward
    looking people who are looking into it.

    As a rule, training has always been a lucrative area for new
    technologies.... so I think that with the strength of MS marketing behind
    it, training will once again prove to be popular.

    Similarly, every publisher has ".NET" strategy plans for books that they
    have signed authors for and will continue to do so (I have seen several of
    these plans, most of them are actually pretty realistic in terms of what
    they want to cover).

    It has been stated officially (elsewhere) that FTP conference coverage will
    be at least 40% .NET in SF in January. One can only assume it will be moreso
    once things are much less than a year from ship.

    But note that training, books, and conferences cover the forward looking,
    future type thing.... not the present. Consulting covers the present so how
    busy it is and how much the rates will be are very dependent on actual
    demand to deploy and use the technology, as opposed to actually learning
    about it.

    Access 2000 is an interesting case to look at for this sort of thing....
    book sales and training has been good, but overall the development community
    still uses 97 unless they need the new functionality.... those who do need
    it are not able to charge significantly more, and they are very much in the
    minority compared to those who use 97. This is NOT a 100% example but the
    same truth and model existed for other platform/paradigm shifts such as
    VB3-->VB4 and Access 2-->Access 95, two other cases where the upgrade was
    significant but there were many issues with the new platform that scared
    people.

    I believe it may shake some people out.... but mostly it will delay them,
    more than anything else.

    --
    MichKa

    random junk of dubious value at the
    multilingual http://www.trigeminal.com/ and
    a new book on internationalization in VB at
    http://www.i18nWithVB.com/

    "Mike" <Mike@nospamnow.com> wrote in message news:39dfdd50@news.devx.com...
    >
    > All,
    >
    > I was wondering what your thoughts are. Is this new MS architecture going
    > to drive up consulting rates?
    >
    > To me, it has to raise it. It seems like it is going to shake out some

    people.
    > I have to believe some people will not gear up for the .NET or they go

    elsewhere.
    >
    > Any thoughts?
    >
    > Mike




  3. #3
    Frank Carr Guest

    Re: VB .NET $$$ Up or Stable?

    "Mike" <Mike@nospamnow.com> wrote in message news:39dfdd50@news.devx.com...

    > I was wondering what your thoughts are. Is this new MS architecture going
    > to drive up consulting rates?
    >
    > To me, it has to raise it. It seems like it is going to shake out some

    people.
    > I have to believe some people will not gear up for the .NET or they go

    elsewhere.

    I don't think it will have a big impact for several reasons....

    First, the .NET framework won't be adopted by a lot of companies at first.
    Only those on the "bleeding edge" will move to it at first. I'd expect about
    a 1 1/2 to 2 year time frame for this transition after it is released. This
    will give people time to train and move into the new technology (nearly a 3
    year lead time from today).

    Second, there is considerable concern in the market about the stability and
    scalability of the NT/2000 platform for running high use/profile web sites.
    Several companies I work with are considering or actively working on a
    transition to Sun/Oracle based systems (Contrary to the hype, they don't
    trust Linux any better than NT). I don't think that .NET will convince them
    that there is greater stability/scalability from Microsoft.

    Third, which is related to the first one, most companies I've worked with
    who are MS shops have web apps running under ASP with VB6 backend
    components. They don't want to fix something that ain't broke or redevelop
    huge apps just for the **** of it. Therefore, they're unlikely to convert
    these apps quickly, particularly to an unproven technology.

    Fourth, people who're not doing web apps will see .NET as a bloated hog for
    desktop apps and won't move to it at all unless they're forced to do so by a
    pointy haired boss (just like very few shops moved to VB4-16).

    Fifth, given that it's going to take a year or more before it moves out of
    beta, during that time, many companies will be implementing solutions that
    use existing, non-beta, technologies (XML and XSLT, for example), and, for
    the same reasons I gave in the third reason, they aren't going to all of a
    sudden switch to .NET.

    Sixth, there is very likely to be an economic downturn going into
    early/middle 2001. This will be caused by the high oil prices and a drying
    up of venture capital and other investment capital. (Whoever's elected
    President or whichever party controls Congress won't make a difference here,
    although they can certainly do something to make it worse). This will mean
    fewer jobs and those that are still around will have stagnant or lower pay.

    I just don't see a big move to .NET technologies that would inspire a small
    pool of programmers who would be in line for higher pay.


    --
    Frank Carr
    jfcarr@msn.com



  4. #4
    Robert Scoble Guest

    Re: VB .NET $$$ Up or Stable?

    > Second, there is considerable concern in the market about the stability
    and
    > scalability of the NT/2000 platform for running high use/profile web

    sites.

    I can understand this concern about NT, but it is unwarranted for Windows
    2000 IMO. Windows 2000 is VERY stable. Or are you experiencing otherwise?

    Robert Scoble

    ###



  5. #5
    Michael \(michka\) Kaplan Guest

    Re: VB .NET $$$ Up or Stable?

    Robert, don't confuse the personal experiences of those who HAVE upgraded
    with the fears of those who have not.

    Windows 2000 *is* more stable. Its also a much more compelling international
    platform (so you *know* I would be a fan!). But that does not change the
    minds of the skeptical.

    --
    MichKa

    random junk of dubious value at the
    multilingual http://www.trigeminal.com/ and
    a new book on internationalization in VB at
    http://www.i18nWithVB.com/

    "Robert Scoble" <rscoble@fawcette.com> wrote in message
    news:39e09acb$1@news.devx.com...
    > > Second, there is considerable concern in the market about the stability

    > and
    > > scalability of the NT/2000 platform for running high use/profile web

    > sites.
    >
    > I can understand this concern about NT, but it is unwarranted for Windows
    > 2000 IMO. Windows 2000 is VERY stable. Or are you experiencing otherwise?
    >
    > Robert Scoble
    >
    > ###
    >
    >




  6. #6
    Robert Scoble Guest

    Re: VB .NET $$$ Up or Stable?

    > Robert, don't confuse the personal experiences of those who HAVE upgraded
    > with the fears of those who have not.
    > Windows 2000 *is* more stable. Its also a much more compelling

    international
    > platform (so you *know* I would be a fan!). But that does not change the
    > minds of the skeptical.


    That's true. Just doing my part to point out that I jumped in and the water
    is nice.

    Robert Scoble

    ###



  7. #7
    Michael \(michka\) Kaplan Guest

    Re: VB .NET $$$ Up or Stable?

    Nah, you probably just like that Netmeeting is bundled with the OS or
    something. <g>

    Just kidding. But I do agree its a **** of an operating system.

    --
    MichKa

    random junk of dubious value at the
    multilingual http://www.trigeminal.com/ and
    a new book on internationalization in VB at
    http://www.i18nWithVB.com/

    "Robert Scoble" <rscoble@fawcette.com> wrote in message
    news:39e0aa01@news.devx.com...
    > > Robert, don't confuse the personal experiences of those who HAVE

    upgraded
    > > with the fears of those who have not.
    > > Windows 2000 *is* more stable. Its also a much more compelling

    > international
    > > platform (so you *know* I would be a fan!). But that does not change the
    > > minds of the skeptical.

    >
    > That's true. Just doing my part to point out that I jumped in and the

    water
    > is nice.
    >
    > Robert Scoble
    >
    > ###
    >
    >




  8. #8
    Robert Scoble Guest

    Re: VB .NET $$$ Up or Stable?

    > Nah, you probably just like that Netmeeting is bundled with the OS or
    > something. <g>
    > Just kidding. But I do agree its a **** of an operating system.


    NetMeeting has been included with every OS since Windows 95.

    Actually, Terminal Services is better for application sharing, and
    NetMeeting is starting to feel quite dated.

    Robert Scoble

    ###



  9. #9
    Michael D. Kersey Guest

    Re: VB .NET $$$ Up or Stable?

    Mike wrote:
    > I was wondering what your thoughts are. Is this new MS architecture going
    > to drive up consulting rates?

    No, it will drive down rates for those familiar with the Microsoft
    development toolset. Reason is, the FUD created by .NET will put
    companys off of any new development with the existing or the new
    toolsets until it becomes clear which way to go(e.g., J2EE, .NET, stay
    with VB6, etc.).

    > To me, it has to raise it. It seems like it is going to shake out some people.

    It will shake out at least the following people:
    1. Early ASP adopters. These developers, who are the best and brightest
    users of Microsoft technology, are getting screwed badly by the decision
    to not use VBScript in the ASP+ framework: the most commonly-used
    Microsoft language on the WWW today is now deprecated. So ASP is now a
    legacy platform and VBScript a legacy internet language. Anyway, many of
    these developers will never adopt the .NET framework. Their knowledge of
    the underlying technologies of the WWW and internet however is
    sufficiently strong and their attitude sufficiently daring that they
    will easily move to other toolsets. The move will unfortunately weaken
    support for the Microsoft IIS platform just when it is most needed by
    Microsoft to support the .NET initiatives.

    2. VB developers and their managers - this will be a delayed effect,
    occurring only once it is realized that ASP+ applications will not scale
    properly and therefore that ASP+ is not appropriate for internet
    development(although it might be OK for use within an intranet). Anyway,
    those VB developers who are not yet familiar with WWW and internet
    technologies(the majority of VB developers IMO), will find their
    situation quite untenable should management adopt VB.NET. The language
    differences (VB6 ->VB.NET) coupled with the learning requirements of the
    new environment (WWW et al) will create a *very* steep learning curve.
    Only a few will be able to adapt. The shortage of early ASP adopters
    will contribute to the situation, since they will no longer be available
    to mentor/instruct the group of people.

    Because of the steep learning curve and lack of proper
    preparation/training, initial .NET projects staffed by such personnel
    will fall severely behind schedule; most such projects will be
    terminated. IT managers and CIOs will be churned to correct the problem.
    It will take IT awhile to regroup, possibly perform a post-mortem(to
    determine whether .NET is kept or to move to say, J2EE), and begin a
    second phase of retraining before re-launching new development.

    Meanwhile, in the non-Microsoft world, progress will be much smoother,
    without the Pandora's box of surprises that .NET holds in store for it's
    sponsors. The fallout from .NET will sharply increase demand for all
    persons familiar with non-Microsoft web technologies.

    > I have to believe some people will not gear up for the .NET or they go elsewhere.

    Yep.

  10. #10
    Keith Franklin, MCSD Guest

    Re: VB .NET $$$ Up or Stable?

    > 1. Early ASP adopters. These developers, who are the best and brightest
    > users of Microsoft technology, are getting screwed badly by the decision
    > to not use VBScript in the ASP+ framework: the most commonly-used
    > Microsoft language on the WWW today is now deprecated.


    Mike,

    Between this post and your previous post about ASP+, IIS, and VB.NET it is
    clear that you are not very familiar to ASP+....The ASP developers that
    command the most respect get out of VBScript and into components asap. They
    will be very comfortable with ASP+ and ASP+ provides tremendous advantages
    to them. But ASP+ just enhances they way you do things. It is a tremendous
    productivity gain. Go to most of the ASP Sites (Not ones built on ASP but
    the ones devoted to ASP and see what they think of ASP+.)...The early
    adopters are all ready building stuff with ASP+...ASP+ is some of the most
    stable of the technologies introduced in .NET...

    >
    > 2. VB developers and their managers - this will be a delayed effect,
    > occurring only once it is realized that ASP+ applications will not scale
    > properly and therefore that ASP+ is not appropriate for internet
    > development(although it might be OK for use within an intranet).


    Where do you get your info.. In ASP+ Microsoft has done a tremendous amount
    of work addressing Scalability and working on the things that were nice in
    ASP but proved to limit scalability (Session objects for instance)...Case in
    point Session objects can now be cross machine allowing them to work in a
    Server farm environment. A architect can even choose to have them backed by
    a SQL Server database. This was not the case with Session objects in ASP.
    ASP+ also monitors itself and if it sees a process starting to leak it will
    start a new process and start forwarding all new requests to that process
    and as soon as all the in process requests complete will shut it down. There
    are many more...

    In regards to failed projects...Since I have been consulted on many an ASP
    project ... I am certain because of the improvements to ASP+ (Session
    objects in particular) VB.NET (Threading model in particular) that even tho
    some of the same common ASP problems will be done by the uneducated
    developers they will be easier to fix...

    For instance sites with high volume were built to use Session objects...When
    needed more then one server...Architectural changes were needed...in ASP+ a
    Session variable can span machines...Developers did bad things like put VB
    objects in Session variables (While still bad IMHO) it will not cause the
    drastic problems it causes in ASP and VB.



  11. #11
    Frank Carr Guest

    Re: VB .NET $$$ Up or Stable?

    "Robert Scoble" <rscoble@fawcette.com> wrote in message
    news:39e09acb$1@news.devx.com...

    > I can understand this concern about NT, but it is unwarranted for Windows
    > 2000 IMO. Windows 2000 is VERY stable. Or are you experiencing otherwise?


    Warranted or not, there seems to be a growing opinion out there that
    Microsoft products aren't stable enough nor scaleable enough for mission
    critical web based applications. I've seen this at about 10 companies where
    they're transitioning away from MS to Oracle and Sun. However, I have also
    seen a couple of other companies where they like to do things "bleeding
    edge" and they're on 2000, no problem.

    It could be that MS is not selling into larger corporations as well as
    Oracle/Sun are doing. Given the level where this kind of decision is being
    made, it's likely that it's one made at the country club between the CIO/CEO
    and a Regional Sales Manager.


    --
    Frank Carr
    jfcarr@msn.com



  12. #12
    Bill Storage Guest

    Re: VB .NET $$$ Up or Stable?


    Michael D. Kersey <mdkersey@hal-pc.org> wrote in message
    news:39E0EC4D.CE31B15E@hal-pc.org...
    > Mike wrote:
    > No, it will drive down rates for those familiar with the Microsoft
    > development toolset. Reason is, the FUD created by .NET will put
    > companys off of any new development with the existing or the new
    > toolsets until it becomes clear which way to go(e.g., J2EE, .NET, stay
    > with VB6, etc.).
    >
    > 1. Early ASP adopters. These developers, who are the best and brightest
    > users of Microsoft technology, are getting screwed badly by the decision
    > to not use VBScript in the ASP+ framework: .


    Hi Mike

    You must see a totally different part of web development
    than I work with. We are looking forward to the prospect of never
    again writing VBScript behind pages. We find that developers who
    learned only VBScript and not VB are at a great disadvantage. The
    rules of script, without real VB experience confuse people badly;
    for example, the data types within Variants, and dealing with special
    Variant values (Empty, Null, vbNullString, Nothing).

    BTW, I read your recent VBPJ opinion. Samuel Johnson's quote
    regardling Bolingbroke was "**** is paved with good intentions",
    not "The road to". The "road" modification is usually attributed to
    Karl Marx.

    Bill



  13. #13
    Michael \(michka\) Kaplan Guest

    Re: VB .NET $$$ Up or Stable?

    "Bill Storage" <storage@dnai.com> wrote in message
    news:39e12d33$1@news.devx.com...

    > BTW, I read your recent VBPJ opinion. Samuel Johnson's quote
    > regardling Bolingbroke was "**** is paved with good intentions",
    > not "The road to". The "road" modification is usually attributed to
    > Karl Marx.


    I think you mean this for me, not Michael Kersey, right?

    Yes, I know this, a peer of mine pointed out this half-forgotten fact but we
    argued a bit and decided that this is what people seem to remember most
    often (I did not know that the quote was attributed to Karl Marx, though,
    just that Johnson's was not the "road" version). :-)

    --
    MichKa

    random junk of dubious value at the
    multilingual http://www.trigeminal.com/ and
    a new book on internationalization in VB at
    http://www.i18nWithVB.com/




  14. #14
    Bill Storage Guest

    Re: VB .NET $$$ Up or Stable?


    Michael (michka) Kaplan <former_mvp@spamfree.trigeminal.nospam.com> wrote in
    message
    >
    > I think you mean this for me, not Michael Kersey, right?
    >


    Oops. Yes.

    > Yes, I know this, a peer of mine pointed out this half-forgotten fact but

    we
    > argued a bit and decided that this is what people seem to remember most
    > often (I did not know that the quote was attributed to Karl Marx, though,
    > just that Johnson's was not the "road" version). :-)
    >


    For the record (for the anal-retentive?) the non-road version also appears
    in
    George Bernard Shaw, as:
    "**** is paved with good intentions, not bad ones. All men mean well." but
    the date on that one would be about 1905.


    Bill



  15. #15
    Michael \(michka\) Kaplan Guest

    Re: VB .NET $$$ Up or Stable?

    "Bill Storage" <storage@dnai.com> wrote in message
    news:39e133e7$1@news.devx.com...

    > > I think you mean this for me, not Michael Kersey, right?
    > >

    >
    > Oops. Yes.


    S'ok... the most polite way to point out mistakes is to make an error when
    you do it. So we can pretend it was intentional. :-)

    > For the record (for the anal-retentive?) the non-road version also appears
    > in
    > George Bernard Shaw, as:
    > "**** is paved with good intentions, not bad ones. All men mean well." but
    > the date on that one would be about 1905.


    Yes, I think this is the one I had forgotten, as opposed to Karl Marx. Of
    course I all I remembered was who it wasn't, its not a big deal. :-)

    --
    MichKa

    random junk of dubious value at the
    multilingual http://www.trigeminal.com/ and
    a new book on internationalization in VB at
    http://www.i18nWithVB.com/




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